Now that we have shed some light on the rise of the iPhone (see Part1 of this post), it is clear to see why all of the so called iPhone-Killers have not been able to do the trick,nor are they likely to ever succeed. They just do not cover all their bases.
Therefore I am not convinced that the Motorola Droid does have the stuff of legends to blow the iPhone away or even steal a large part of market share. Not with Apple supposedly opening the market for other service providers apart from AT&T and its local partners, that will sure as hell create another vitalizing gold rush for the iPhone whenever this will happen (but I do not expect this to happen in China, a land that has so many copycats that its hard to know which one was the original brand eventually and a government that does not do a thing about it).
Especially taking into account that the Droid is coming from a sinking ship that has long lost it´s shine – and revenue. And we all know it! What´s even stranger is the fact, that the last really successful Motorola cell phone series, namely the RAZR V3, is a little dusty at best and was running under the headlines of being: good looking, adorable and fashionable. That´s not really high tech talk we are speaking about here and it makes this conversation so much more ridiculous. Do not get me wrong: my very first cell phone about a decade ago was a Motorola and I loved it, but how can a beaten down company stand up again and pit itself against the assumed love child of the tech world – or is it? From my side of the pond it looks more like a last struggle from the grave. But is not about every other major brand in this industry struggling at the moment - just think about the decline of Sony Ericsson and the layoffs at Nokia. Especially the chaos in Germany which did more to demolish the Norwegians image than was plain to see at first, but know that the dust has settled and we bathe in the shining glory of the iPhone, they sure wish they had not closed that factory in Bochum!
Certainly one thing will be a positive factor and that was a very smart move by Motorola that I give them credit for: Too many different and incompatible Operating Systems are restricting and separating the market, so Motorola abandoned any effort to build on a dying OS and instead uses a fresh and promising environment like the Google Android platform to get a major player in the boat which is - even better - very likely to throw a lot of money at this industry and wants to establish itself as an industry leader.
As the Droid is getting much attention these days, it surely will find its support in existing iPhone unfriendly environments, and having seen the PR disaster that Apple and the App Store has become lately, it is very likely that a bunch of developers has more than one good eye on the Android API right now, benefiting its rise and improving its shine. So this is the new secret weapon that could proof to be a real damaging advantage, if maybe not yet for the Droid, then definitely for the whole industry in the long term. I have no doubt that Google also has the best base set of complimentary tools. Witnessing the Maps Direction routing abilities brought to the Android platform lately, this is certainly a winner that the big brands will bet on, especially because it is Open Source software and free to develop and built upon for all.
That also means that Windows Mobile is the next sinking ship in this industry for sure, as no major player would likely pay for a dying OS or meet Microsoft´s other pressing demands in product bundling and distribution policies. As a side effect this will create an even larger market share for the http://www.google.com/chrome Browser and not only in the Mobile World as people will more easily consider Chrome, if they use it on their cell phones already. And Google might even now take a closer look at the rumors of an upcoming Apple Tablet, to copy the Chrome OS functionality for Netbooks and any such devices in the near future.
Speaking about essential and ideal conditions for a market to thrive in, one other thing would have to change to make a real step forward for the whole industry: Service providers must get rid of these restricting 24 month contracts and instead offer a non-restrictive monthly contract model. Dump the subvention for the devices and let the people buy the phones that they want to have and offer them an option based clean menu of many choices and adaptive plans. That will also sum up nicely in the long term and create even more revenue in the end, as the now happy customers will step over themselves to recommend this service, because all of a sudden they get exactly what they want and do not feel betrayed anymore.
So in the end it is not a question if there will be any one device that is the next iPhone Killer, but it will be nice to observe if Google is able to develop the Android OS to a level of interactivity and compatibility, were the combined market share of many different brands and devices can fit a users individual needs and demands. We will see, if Google will blow away the iPhone and lead us into the next mobile generation...
